Wealth not in properties next 20 years in Period 9?

2024 is a significant year. It marks the commencement of Period 9 (九运) in the Chinese calendar.

On February 4 precisely at 4.37 pm, we welcomed the arrival of spring (立春). From that moment, we officially entered Period 9 that will last for 20 years until the end of 2043.

What is three cycles and nine periods?

I remember the teacher mentioned three cycles and nine periods (三元九运) in our secondary four Chinese Literature class. Since it wouldn’t be tested in exams, I didn’t jot down any notes. If I knew that this is the foundation of fengshui, I would have paid more attention.

Traditionally, the Chinese group every 20 years into one fengshui period. Every three periods or 60 years is one cycle. There are three cycles – the upper, middle and lower cycle (上元、中元、下元). Therefore, three cycles and nine periods will span a total of 180 years before repeating itself. In other words, in every 180 years, we have Period 1 to Period 9, with each period lasting 20 years.

Whenever we begin a new period, the five elements and flying stars change. What used to be good fengshui may become bad fengshui and vice versa.

In fact, a new fengshui period starts two to three years in advance. Thus, we may have seen some characteristics of Period 9 happening in 2021 to 2023. Those are often uncertain and turbulent times. Don’t worry. I won’t be retelling bad things such as stock market corrections in 1962, 1982, 2002 and 2022.

When I was young, I didn’t believe in geomancy. If we can take destiny in our hands, why do we need palm reading? I didn’t know that Chinese geomancy or fengshui is all about probability or the chance of occurrence. If most of us cannot live beyond the age of 100, how can anyone possibly come up with sufficient cases to prove thousands’ years of Chinese statistics wrong?

How geomancers read the future?

How do geomancers tell what is going to happen next? They can get their ideas from the book I Ching or Yii Jing (易经) – a classic book published in the Zhou dynasty (周朝) about changes and predictions.

In ancient times, the study of geomancy or fengshui was highly restricted to the elite around the emperor or the general. The purposes were to find the ideal burial place, to predict the outcome of a battle, or to tell the fate of a country. A commoner who secretly studied geomancy was considered treason and would be executed by beheading.

Nowadays we are free to read and interpret classic geomancy books. Experienced geomancers can tell which locations and countries will be flourishing or doomed. They can advise about global or a country’s economy, business opportunities or investment prospects.

For instance, geomancers refer to Yi Jing’s hexagrams chapter (说卦) for the predictions of each fengshui period. Those interested in Period 9 can refer to paragraph 11.

Why the geomancers often give different interpretations? For one thing, ancient Chinese language is not the same as our modern Chinese language. Moreover, the original text has no punctuation. Reading the Yi Jing is a test of individuals’ understanding of ancient Chinese language and Chinese history. It also depends on a geomancer’s ability to apply olden days’ omens and ideas in modern times.

What happened in Period 8?

In 2001, after the dot-com bubble burst, US slipped into recession. Singapore’s economy suffered another setback in 2003 after SARS. The years 2001 to 2005 was a long property trough in Singapore. To save the market, the government rolled out stimulating measures. The banks offered low-interest loans, legal subsidies and cash rebates. Nonetheless, prices kept going south.

I was fortunate to find a few good buys during that time. In retrospect, I made my first bucket of gold not because I was insightful or savvy in property investment. It only happened that I was in Singapore and had saved some money to fund my purchases. I was simply standing in the right place at the right time.

To make things work, we need the right time (天時), location(地利) and people (人和). Timing always comes first. As humans, if we try to go against heaven, we can never win. Similarly, we can never beat the market. We can only go with it.

It was only many years later that I realized the 20-year period between 2004 and 2023 fell into Period 8 which belongs to Gen Trigram (艮卦). The hexagram is under the earth element (属土) which brought prosperity to all earth-related industries, including real estate and construction. No wonder property prices soared.

“Buying properties is like sailing in the open waters. When the wind and waves are in your favor, it doesn’t matter what you buy. Everyone makes money. Indeed, it is almost impossible to lose money when buying a property and selling it shortly thereafter when prices are on the way up. The trend is your friend until it stabs you in the back.

– Vina Ip, Behind The Scenes of The Property Market

What will happen in Period 9?

In the next 20 years from 2024 to 2043, we are in Period 9 lower cycle (下元九运). Period 9 belongs to Li Trigram (离卦). The hexagram is ruled by the fire element (属火). It will bless all fire-related industries, such as high technology, internet, telecommunications, energy, etc.

Yes, real estate is not among them.

However, it doesn’t mean that property prices will crash and slump in the next 20 years. The property industry will still have its ups and downs like other industries. However, it won’t grow leaps and bounds like the fire-related industries.

After all, people still need a roof over their head. But they buy a home because they need a place to stay, not for the hope that they can profit from it one day. For towns, cities or countries without the injection of booming industries and new residents, under the prudent home buying sentiment, the prospect of a turnaround is dim. Whether it can be the exception depends on the location and the people there.

Likewise, investors will still buy properties. But it is just one of the asset classes that they put their money in. Like any investment, they are cautious about price and quality. They will cherry-pick from what is available in the market.

On the other hand, Li (离) literally means distancing. The distancing between people will be more pronounced in Period 9. We will indulge in the internet and the virtual world.

Besides, after some drastic events, people transcend from chase of material to pursue of spirituality. Many young people become passionate about soul-searching, ideologies and religions.

Maybe I should divert my focus and change the blog name from PropertySoul.com to Soul.com.

How to read Singapore properties in Period 9?

In 2022 and 2023, there were clear signs of changes in the property market. Under the transition from Period 8 to Period 9, the market saw high interest rates, low affordability, few transactions and more property taxes and restrictions.

Investors disappeared in the market under incremental rise of ABSD after every new round of cooling measures. For foreign buyers, 60 percent ABSD is the killer. Above all, the authorities finally took actions against money laundering. Singapore is no longer a safe haven for money launderers. With no injection of overseas capital, demand in the property market, especially luxury homes, will be shrunk to a small playground limited to local buyers.

With lack of market confidence, developers are voting with their feet. Last week, the only bid for the Marina Gardens Crescent site was rejected due to low offer.

In the public housing market, thanks to the new policy “first-timers reject offer to pick BTO flats will lose priority for a year”. In 2023, BTO application rates are down with 1.9 first-time applicants for each flat, a big drop from 3.7 in 2019.

Last year, close to 42,000 public and private homes were completed – the biggest annual supply of completed homes in both markets since 2017. By end of 2023, there were 39,153 private units (including ECs) in the supply pipeline. In 2023 alone, 9,250 units were released from 15 confirmed sites for private housing. This is the highest in a decade.

Can the market absorb the influx of supply?

Moving forward, as National Development Minister Desmond Lee said, the government measures are here to ensure that “residential housing is principally for home ownership”. In the future, whether it is public or private housing, they are more for home ownership than investment or speculation.

Food for thought

After Period 9, we will start the 180-year cycle again with Period 1. Between 2044 and 2063, the element is water. Then we are ruled by the earth element again in Period 2 between 2064 to 2083.

How old are you in 2064?

It is risky to tie up all your money in properties, especially in one property. It is riskier if you bought at a high price, being stuck with substantial loan, and have no hedge in cash or other good assets. This is especially true if you are approaching retirement age.

I completely agree with what American investor Howard Marks said.

“If you keep interest rates artificially low for a long time, then it distorts the behavior of investors. Among other things, this encourages malinvestment — that is, the misallocation of capital to projects that would never otherwise get off the ground — and in turn, this, combined with added borrowing, makes the system more fragile.”

As we step into Period 9, ask yourself three important questions:

1) If higher-for-longer interest rates will be the norm for the next one or two decades, how do you cope with your current mortgage, personal loans, business loans and different types of leveraging in investment?

2) If high interest rates continue in the next two decades, how will you invest your money differently compared with what you are doing now?

3) If unfortunately, there is another global recession in Period 9 that an international city like Singapore is impossible to stay intact, what different decisions will you make in your home, investment and retirement plan?

Whatever your answer is, it is your choice. Just be prepared to take responsibility for what you choose.

Check out my new online courses How To Buy Good Quality Properties and Buy The Right Condos.

You can watch the recording of the presentations at the 2023 Mid-Year Singapore Property Review and Outlook seminar.

The video 2023 Singapore Private Home Market is available for viewing here.

If you need advice on property matters or residential properties in Singapore, you can check out my one-to-one consultation service.

My book Behind The Scenes of The Property Market is available for preview and order online.