When we were young, we believed when we grow older, we will have the answer to most questions. As time passed by, we had more questions than answers. As former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told us, “There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
Sometimes we ask a question. Rather than getting an answer, we end up with more questions. Philosopher Aristotle said, “The more you know, the more you realize you don’t know.”
(Caution: This blog post is not meant for those who don’t like to think. If doing too much thinking is bad for your health, stop reading right now.)
Property question 1: Who will buy a home with so many fengshui problems?
Last week the media reported that Reserve Residences sold over 70 percent at its launch. Buyers snapped up 520 units at an average price of $2,460 psf. Developer Far East said 99 percent buyers are Singaporeans or Singapore PRs.
The mixed-use development site has Jalan Jurong Kechil in the west, Jalan Anak Bukit in the north, PIE Anak Bukit Flyover in the east, and Upper Bukit Timah Road in the south. That means all four sides of the plot are bordered by highway, flyover and main roads with heavy traffic.
At the intersection of Jalan Anak Bukit and Upper Bukit Timah Road is a busy junction pointing directly at the corner of the site. Above all, the development is built on top of an underground bus interchange.
The construction site has been blocked off for some time. Every other week we would drive past the place. Every time I would frown at the location, wondering why anyone would want to stay in a home with such bad fengshui.
To prepare for my upcoming How To Buy Good Quality Properties Workshop, I am updating the real-life examples of homes facing different undesirable objects or with various types of bad sha qi (煞气). These are all unsuitable dwellings for human beings.
Coincidentally, Reserve Residences presents four perfect examples to illustrate 声煞/噪音煞 (noise sha), 拦腰煞/桥煞 (waist blocking/flyover sha), 剪刀煞 (scissors sha) and 地底穿心煞 (underground heart-piercing sha) that I can conveniently kill four birds with one stone.
In contrast, the three-storey shopping mall under the residential blocks enjoys very good fengshui. It has good traffic flowing from all directions. As expected, Far East will be the operator of the mall.
Property question 2: Where is the lush greenery outside the window?
An interesting observation: Why all the images in the sales brochures and videos of Reserve Residences show only lush greenery embracing the site? Why is there no sign of traffic from any main road or flyover surrounding the land?
The agent said the units were facing Bukit Timah Nature Reserve, Rifle Range Nature Park and Rail Corridor. Last month I was there with friends. Starting from Beauty World MRT station, we had to cross the overhead bridge above the heavy traffic at Jalan Anak Bukit first before we could continue talking and be able to hear each other.
To be fair, high floor units facing Jalan Anak Bukit will have greenery view of Bukit Timah Nature Reserve. But it is provided that residents look straight out of the window rather than looking down.
Can staying on high floors avoid air and noise pollution from the traffic? The truth is: As long as you can see something, you can hear it. Furthermore, sound travels upwards, especially during the day. That is the reason why we can hear children screaming in the swimming pool even though we are on a high floor.
There is nothing superstitious about property fengshui. It is very scientific.
Property question 3: How to block off noises from all directions?
The sales gallery was located outside the construction site at a relatively quiet corner intersecting Jalan Jurong Kechil and Upper Bukit Timah Road. The agent said only the back of the units are facing the highway. We went to the kitchen of one of the showflats. Then the agent opened a small window and let me hear the sound of the traffic, with light music in the background.
“In front of us is the PIE. Can you hear any noise? Nothing much. Right?”
However, the map showed that we were standing near Upper Bukit Timah Road. Whereas PIE Anak Bukit Flyover is located behind the blocked construction site on the other end hundreds of meters away.
Besides, a check with the agent confirmed that the living rooms and all the bedrooms come with full-length windows. Then why does the developer have no plan to install double-glazed windows?
I have viewed hundreds of resale private homes. For those facing flyovers, expressways or main roads, the chance of not hearing any traffic noise inside the unit is zero. Double glazed windows cannot help much. Perhaps the best way to block off the traffic noise is to wear a good headphone 24×7?
Over the years, I have many interesting property stories to tell. Some are my own experiences while others are retold by the agents. Here’s one from an agent: An owner bought a condominium unit facing the expressway. One can imagine prospective tenants complain about the noise during flat viewings. During one such viewing, an expatriate asked,
“For all the condo units in Singapore, why the owner had to buy one facing the highway?”
Poor agent. How to answer this difficult question?
Property question 4: How to get used to buses driving in and out all day?
For all the condos in Singapore, why people have to buy one above a bus interchange?
Right next to the Creekside low-rise blocks of Reserve Residences, the project model shows an upward slope of a bus interchange entrance, with a bus ramp at the end of the slope.
How can residents at the low blocks not hear buses accelerating up the entrance all day long? Likewise, will residents staying above a bus interchange not see buses driving in and out from early morning till late at night?
Thanks to Singapore’s world-class public transport system. Whether it is mornings or evenings, peak hours or non-peak hours, weekdays or weekends, even on public holidays commuters are assured of the availability of bus rides at frequent intervals.
Targeted to complete end of this year, the Beauty World bus interchange is not just another bus interchange. It is an Integrated Transport Hub connecting all buses from different parts of Singapore.
Maybe we can try standing opposite another Integrated Transport Hub at Boon Lay bus interchange for a day. I mean standing in the street opposite the bus interchange entrance, not inside the air-conditioned bus waiting area adjoining Jurong Point. Breathe the air, watch the traffic and hear countless buses driving past, accelerating in and out and honking along the way.
Right above the Boon Lay bus interchange and Jurong Point is the 610-unit condo The Centris. It was launched end of 2006 and completed in early 2009 during the Global Financial Crisis. On 14 January 2009, Straits Times published an article titled “Help for Centris condo buyers”. Banks shrank their approved loans under lowered valuation and tightened borrowing. The developer had to organize a roadshow to help owners secure bank financing to avoid mass defaults and fire sale.
Property question 5: Why buyers choose to stay in a mixed development?
Staying in a condo with shops downstairs does provide convenience to residents who can’t or don’t like to walk far. But the reality is: The party who benefited most financially in a mixed-use development is always the developer.
I usually start the How To Buy Good Quality Properties Workshop with the story of my parents who bought a unit in a mixed-use development. Then a fire broke out in one of the commercial units which triggered emergency evacuation of residents in the residential block directly above.
There is a recent Straits Times article “Congestion at Woodleigh Residences and Mall carpark entrance leaves residents frustrated”. Residents complained about waiting up to 30 minutes to enter the carpark during peak hours.
This is not the only issue of staying in a mixed-use development. Other potential problems include:
– Heavy traffic especially during weekends and festive seasons
– Loss of sense of exclusivity perceived in upscale residential projects
– Security concern when commercial and residential units are sharing the same or a nearby entrance
– Difficulty in obtaining majority consensus in a collective sale with shop owners having more shares
Did the buyers consider all these factors before taking the plunge?
Property question 6: How to squeeze a family of 3 to 4 into a 440 sq ft unit?
Another selling point of Reserve Residences is proximity to two prestigious primary schools.
The developer claimed that all the one-bedroom units were sold out. A week later, the agent said all the two bed-room units were also gone.
If the reason for buying this project is near good schools, why are the buyers only snapping up one and two bedders? Is it feasible to let a 6-year-old stay alone in a shoebox unit? If not, how can a couple with one or two school-going children, and probably a maid as well, all squeeze into a 441-495 sq ft 1-bedroon unit or a 560-743 sq ft 2-bedroom unit?
Are all the parents not able to find more spacious and affordable condo units in Upper Bukit Timah?
Above is a table of new projects launched in the vicinity compiled by Stackedhomes with data from Edgeprop. They all have shorter time to completion compared with Reserve Residences. Some are freehold but all marketed at more affordable psf price.
There are also tons of older condos along Bukit Timah Road. They are already built. What you see is what you get with no potential health hazard.
Don’t forget, a few years down the road, any “new project” now will also be considered as “old” resale projects like the rest of the nearby ones.
Food for thought
Hillion Residences is built directly above Bukit Panjang MRT station and Bukit Panjang bus interchange. Underneath is the four-storey Hillion Mall. Launched in 2013, a 460 – 470 sq ft one-bedroom sold for $1,500 to $1,600 psf. From 2016, prices dropped to $1,300 – $1,400 psf. With cheap money during the pandemic, prices finally climbed back to $1,600 to $1,700 psf. But this is 10 years after launch. And this hasn’t taken into account the initial stamp duties, subsequent property taxes and maintenance fees paid over the years.
A decade after their launch in 2012 and 2013, eCo and Urban Visita owners are still under water. Those who bought CCR new launches in 2007 are still waiting to breakeven after 16 years.
One last question with no answer: For buyers who bought Reserve Residences at $2,450 psf, guess how many years later the psf price of nearby projects can catch up with it?
Why do Singaporeans like to follow the herd? Because our mentality is: If everyone is going for it, it must be good. If everyone says it is good, we also want the same thing … Many buyers lack the ability to think for themselves and differentiate whether the information presented to them is true or false. Instead of evaluating risk and return, they go along with others, thinking that it is safe to follow the majority. And the herd goes around like parrots repeating what everyone else is saying.
– Vina Ip, Behind The Scenes of The Property Market
Our next event is How to Buy Good Quality Properties Workshop on July 29, 2023. Register here.
The video 2023 Singapore Private Home Market is available now.
My book Behind The Scenes of The Property Market is available for preview and order online. You can also check out our online courses.
If you need advice on property matters or residential properties in Singapore, you can check out my one-to-one consultation service.
Hi Vina, I enjoy reading your articles. This is one of your best. Very intelligent questions.
My friends had asked for my view on your article and my feedback is below.
Vina had been more often wrong than correct in her predictions recently. But once the irrational exuberance ends she would be proven to be right all along.
Given all the hype for The Reserve my wife and I visited the showflat on Sunday. The realtor who showed us around was a nice 67 year old former teacher for the gifted program. I told her frankly that we would not buy but I can share the details with my friends who appear to be keen to assist their children buy private property.
Later that day she told me that there is a bounced out 2 bedder pool facing unit available at $2772 psf and asked whether any of my friends would be interested?
She also added that it was 1st come 1st served. Need to send an image of IC n cheque. They look at timestamp. May need to ballot.
I replied that if there is such irrational exuberance I rather pass and do not believe I should suggest to any of my friends to jump into the fray to ballot.
Later, on the same day she sent me the text below
‘The unit has been taken. Doing docs now. Just an update’.
I have seen this dance before. It will not last. Sooner than later the party will end and many buyers will realise that Upper Bukit Timah did not miraculously become more attractive than Cairnhill!
Many who jumped in will have buyers remorse. You can still get freehold in far better locations and much closer to the city at this price. Those have far better intrinsic value.
Thanks for reading my blog posts. Glad that you like this one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t have to be right all the time. But for people who can only afford to buy one private home, they’ve better don’t get it wrong.
There are a few common sales tactics to pressure potential buyers into making a deposit. One that almost always work is to play with their weakness of FOMO or fear of missing out. Balloting was real during the good old days in 2013. These days it is nothing but a joke when there are more new units than buyers
Yes, it is interesting to see why so many buyers don’t bother to do their own research to compare the market price of nearby projects. They can compare and bargain up to the last dollar for small purchases. Yet for a $2 million property that they can be stuck with it for years they just listen to everything the agent said.
Hi Vina
You are right!
The hot property run will create problems but it is not a new problem. It is the same problem with all property cycles. For a long period of time you can lose money or get sub par returns for property investment. But for short periods of time the returns are exceptional. This attracts lots of buyers who are frustrated at missing out earlier and further push up prices and create new peaks. Of course they buy with the expectation of making money because their clever friend or successful agent enlightens them on the formula to get a good return.
Inevitably the market will run out of steam and prices will languish again. Those who went at the late stage will have to wait till the peak of another cycle to make a small profit. But during the frenzy apparently people are blind. Only when the dust has settled will they see how blindsided they were.
Even for landed. It was always limited in supply and attractive for families. But for many years buyers were unwilling to pay even half of what they are jumping to offer now. In fact most landed houses took a much longer time to sell with few buyers. This frenzy too would change.
Yes. Property purchase opportunities are like MRT trains. If you miss this train, there is always the next train coming. It is dangerous to rush in while the doors are closing. Remind me of the pig investors in the stock market. They are late and get in last, but are greedy with unrealistic expectations on future price growth. They often end up making the biggest losses. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Great article with incisive points. Developers and agents are profit driven. Of course all the negative aspects will be wrapped up. Thanks for educating the masses. Sinkies should start to learn how to think for themselves.
Thanks. Just sharing my two-cents here. Sometimes I wonder who is to blame here: The salesperson who mislead the customer in order to close the deal, or the customer who can’t think independently and can only rely on others’ opinions to make a decision.
There was once this buyers meeting that we attended after we moved in. The lady was so upset with her unit facing the west sun that she shouted in the meeting room that she felt absolutely misled by the agent who sold her the unit, last of few remaining unsold. I guess its both, but more inclined to the customer who rely on “others” opinions to make a decision. And with what was often mentioned, the relationship is one-time, transactional, you never see that agent again but you are stuck with the west sun ‘forever’, 24/7… and I can say, yes, its very hot, and not just the sun, the road junction too, the honking etc because its beside a international school.
Can’t blame others. There is always a compass pointing north near the project model at the sales gallery and in the siteplan and/or floorplans in the sales brochure. Of course, every agent marketing the unit will by default tell you “this is the best unit”. Agree with you that there are many agents who are only interested to make the most from their clients and don’t care about their interest. They don’t believe in building trust or a long-term relationship. They only want to pocket their one-time commission and that’s it.
Nice article, I actually did not see some of the points you mentioned in the article. You are truly an expert!
Thank you. Good to know that you find my write-up useful
Sporeans are now suffering from OCD , obsessed with with property.
Which prices are high, many can’t wait to rush in. When prices are low, no one is interested to buy.
An absolutely well written article, with nice touches.
Prices will keep rising in a land scarce of land and where big money just randomly buy up at whatever price they’re offered. My brother rents out his landed property for $7000, and I’m about to ask him if he’s raising it to 8k soon. Hahaha. It’s rented out to an Ang Mo expat.
Thanks. It is interesting that whenever property prices are up, we hear all these nonsense talks about land scarcity in Singapore. People forgot that whenever the property market was in the doldrums, there were noises questioning the oversupply of homes in the market.
Here is the advice from a multiple-property landlord like me: Ask for the highest possible rent while you still can. Lock in for the longest tenure possible. You never know what will happen next. Landlords in Singapore have absolutely no control over rental fluctuations. With a high home ownership rate, landlords are not protected with a ready rental demand from the locals. We are at the mercy of economic climate, immigration policies and government regulations all the time.
Guess new builds can sell more because of deferred payment scheme so that buyers can leverage more and earn more with smaller capital outlay? Is this what agents are telling buyers that new builds will be at least 10-20% in 3 years when they sell?
Yes, deferred payment scheme is most tricky. On the surface, it looks like buyers have more time to pay. They also hope that prices will go up few years later leading to project completion. But in reality, after buying at future prices (by taking into account maximum possible rise in price level), buyers are actually helping developers to offload their risks in interest rates, economic condition, market situation, etc.
Why are S’porean so concerned with the “prestige” of staying in a private property? Most are marginal buyers, stretched up to their necks, not to mention car loan, on-going monthly expenses. There is no clear signs that interest rates will be cut drastically. Many buyers didn’t study the loan amortisation table. Just see how much interest you have paid at the end of 30 years for a private property loan of $1mill.
Biggest winners here will still be the banks.
Yes, for these “marginal buyers”, they only benefit the banks, the middleman and IRAS. They work hard all year round to pay others first.