On April 12, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) announced its housing development in Greater Southern Waterfront. When completed, the existing 48-hectare land of the Keppel Club will have a total of 9,000 residential units, including 6,000 public housing flats and 3,000 private residential units.
Property consultants know better than HDB and URA?
Real estate stakeholders are welcome to share their market forecasts or future predictions. Never mind the numbers are based on gut feel or a wild guess. It is not required to back it up with assumptions, calculations or formula. There is no consequence for making a wrong prediction. No spokesperson has ever been backtracked to be held responsible for an inaccurate forecast.
– Vina Ip, Behind The Scenes of The Property Market
1) Pricing in Greater Southern Waterfront
Immediately, property agencies and property portals were excited by the Greater Southern Waterfront plan. They wasted no time to make wild guesses. On of them is whether the new BTO flats in Greater Southern Waterfront will fall under the new Prime Location Housing Model.
Many made predictions about the price range of the 3-room and 4-room BTO flats at launch. Some even speculated these flats might be priced at $1 million.
Wait, the Singapore government will set a million-dollar price tag for a new 4-room BTO flat in District 4?
It is interesting to see these industry stakeholders predicting confidently the launch price of new BTO flats 3 to 5 years in advance when everything is still under planning. What makes them think that they can foresee how HDB will set their prices even before the authority has time to study and make any decision? Did any one of them sit in the board of HDB or URA?
In this turbulent world, anyone can be a fortune teller to tell the future. The India child prodigy can predict the timing of Covid-19. The Singapore property consultants can predict the prices of new BTO flats.
2) Site Development in Greater Southern Waterfront
The property consultants interviewed by the local media also conceptualize a full-scale high-end private housing district in Greater Southern Waterfront.
Private housing to be built on the Keppel Club site will likely be a mix of low-rise and high-rise condo units, and possibly some strata landed housing as well. Each of these residential properties are not expected to come cheap: At S$2,200 per square feet (psf) or higher, taking reference from recent transactions in the area.”
– “Developers will want stake in ‘unique’ waterfront site at Keppel Club, mixed-height condos expected to be built: Analysts”, TODAY, 13 April 2022
However, the authority never said that they are now inviting the public or the real estate industry stakeholders to give them ideas on the site development of Greater Southern Waterfront.
The minister only mentioned that “we will engage specialists to develop an environmental management and monitoring plan to minimise and to mitigate any environmental impact arising from the development works”.
In case anyone read it wrongly: The minister meant government consultation is on protecting the greeneries, not pricing the properties. Members of the public are encouraged to provide feedback on the environmental impact study, not on inconsequential property guesstimate. The minister said “the plans are guided by feedback from nature groups”, not by property industry stakeholders.
Greater Southern Waterfront – Another housing dream?
We appreciate the efforts of our government to excite us with a new development project every now and then with updates on the MasterPlan. It feels good to know that we don’t miss any part of Singapore in the future.
In the west, there is Jurong Lake District. In the north, we have North Coast Innovation Corridor. To the northeast, Punggol Digital District is in the plan. In the east, we look forward to the future development of Paya Lebar Airbase. All over Singapore, we are developing the Underground MasterPlan to utilize underground spaces. Last but not the least, now the south has Greater Southern Waterfront.
Finally, our future plans manage to cover the entire Little Red Dot!
1) Where exactly is Greater Southern Waterfront?
The minister said, “As the site is quite close to the city centre, we will bring homes closer to jobs. This is part of our effort to move towards having more housing options and mixed-use development in our central region.”
Close to the city centre? In our central region? Are we all clear about the exact location of Greater Southern Waterfront? It is situated in District 4, not District 1 or 2, nor 9, 10 or 11.
I had my workplace in this area twice: once in the late 1990s to early 2000s, and another time in the late 2000s. For the latter, we sometimes had executive meetings and dinners at the Keppel Club.
This is the southwest part of Singapore. Depending where you call it city centre or central region of Singapore, during rush hours, it took minimum 30 minutes to drive to Orchard or the CBD. Traffic along Telok Blangah Road was a nightmare. It got worst nearer to Vivo City and the gateway to Sentosa.
2) Did Queens condo ring a bell?
When the government revealed that there would be 3,000 private residential units and 6,000 public housing flats in Greater Southern Waterfront, I was taken aback by this mixed housing arrangement.
Remember Allgreen Properties launched Queens in July 2000? The 38-storey project in Stirling Road was marketed as Singapore’s tallest condominium and Singapore’s new icon. The high-profile project was launched in phases. Close to 35 percent of units were snapped up in the first week.
I still recalled what a property agent friend said over dinner. He strongly recommended buying Queens. Over the course of time, it couldn’t be wrong owning a unit of the tallest condominium which is the icon of Singapore.
Seven months later in February 2001, The Straits Times suddenly came up with the headline “Queenstown skyline to sparkle with blue jewels”. Guess what? HDB announced building of two 40-storey and three 30-storey blocks directly opposite Queens. Two HDB blocks were two levels higher than Queens.
Buyers of condominium units in the 38-storey-high Queens at Stirling Road were promised a sweeping vista of “city lights by night”. Now they are upset as their view will be obstructed.
– The New Paper, 15 June 2001
View unfit for the Queens: Buyers of units at the 38-storey condominium are upset their prized view will be blocked once 40-storey HDB flats are built directly opposite. Be on guard. The onus is more on the buyer.
– The Straits Times, 15 June 2001
Two decades later, the icon of Singapore is still the Merlion. And the Queens condominium is not even considered as the landmark of Queenstown.
3) How exciting is mixing private homes and public flats?
Right after the government announced the Greater Southern Waterfront project in 2019, UOL launched Avenue South Residence in September that year to seize the first-mover advantage. The units were sold at a premium of $1,780 to $2,250 psf. Two and a half years later now, the project still has 12 percent units unsold.
Early buyers of Avenue South Residence have already committed to their purchase. Now the government is planning for 3,000 private homes and 6,000 public flats in Greater Southern Waterfront. There is more competition in the area.
Where are the sites for the rest of the 2,000 private homes? If market direction changes, will SLA sell the new sites at more affordable prices? What if other developers market their new projects lower than $2,250 psf?
Avenue South Residence targets to complete end of 2023 or 2024. In 2025, HDB will launch the first batch of new BTO flats. Eligible buyers can apply for these flats in the same locationGreater Southern Waterfront, most likely paying less than half of the asking price of the UOL project.
Another danger is: We all know where the actual site of Avenue South Residence is. But we have no idea where the 6,000 BTO flats are. What if the BTO flats are tall HDB blocks higher than the UOL project? Above all, will HDB build the BTO blocks opposite the condo, or worse still, surround the 1,074 units in all directions?
After all, in Singapore it is not uncommon to see HDB flats and condo projects standing closely side-by-side with each other. In that case, both the condo and HDB dwellers are guaranteed a view. If you stay in HDB, you have condo view. If you stay in condo, you have HDB view.
What happened to the last “waterfront living”?
An agency spokesperson commented that Greater Southern Waterfront’s “waterfront living will be a key selling point for both buyers and developers”.
Waterfront living. Sounds familiar?
Remember the Jurong Lake District (JLD)? When it was announced, we were told there is a facelift of housing estates with “waterfront living”. Waterfront hotels and Lakeside Village will be built. JLD is going to be Singapore’s second CBD. A 112-hectare mixed-use site at Lakeside Gateway will be home to the future terminus of the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail. (Read my blog post “Is Jurong Lake District the next hotspot for property hunting?”)
On 28 June 2013, MCL Land leveraged the red-hot JLD plan and launched J Gateway with a bang. Eager buyers passed 1,400 blank cheques to their agents and snapped up all 738 units at $1,400 to $1,800 psf – a new record for home prices in Jurong.
Unfortunately, the “lucky” buyers went home that evening only to be greeted by the strictest property curb ever – the Total Debt Servicing Ratio. This was the 8th round of property cooling measures and the harshest round. It was so effective that the market didn’t need another round again until five years later in July 2018.
What happened to JLD since June 2013? Two shopping malls JEM and Westgate were in business that year. Ng Teng Fong General Hospital was opened in 2015. J Gateway was completed in 2017.
Nine years on, where is the proposed waterfront hotels and second CBD? Where is the promised Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail?
说好的 2nd CDB 呢？说好的 high speed rail 呢？
In March 2022, Singapore Tourism Board invited tourism proposals for Jurong Lake District. The submission deadline is this October. The tentative target for completion is 2028.
2028 is 15 years’ wait from 2013. What was the rush to buy J Gateway in 2013?
Buying for the future too early
When I wrote about the Jurong Lake District in 2014, I questioned whether buyers should take the plunge at the peak of the property market. For Great Southern Waterfront, I am asking the two questions again:
1. Are you buying the hotspot area at the peak or bottom of the market?
2. How long are you prepared for the hotspot area to realize its full potential?
Keppel Club won’t vacant the site until end of March next year. The government also need time to prepare the land for residential building. The first batch of BTO flats is scheduled to launch three years later. That is probably the time to release private residential sites for sale. The average construction time of a private or BTO project is close to five years. That means the earliest we will see Greater Southern Waterfront populated with housing is eight years later in 2030.
Many buyers like to go after projects that are under the limelight – properties that are on everyone’s radar. They are excited by any new development plan announced by the government and are the first to snap up new private residential projects launched in related areas. They can easily justify paying for the project’s higher prices to anticipate future price appreciation of properties in the area.
However, there is a long lead time from announcement to construction and longer lead time from construction to completion – not to mention the delay from completion to operation if it involves public transportation such as new railway lines or stations.
Anything can happen between the announcement and completion due to unforeseen circumstances. Plans can be modified or downsized, projects can be delayed or aborted, and the economy can go up or down.
Unfortunately, eager buyers have already gone ahead and purchased at premium prices. Whatever happens, they can only accept what the future throws at them.
– Vina Ip, Behind The Scenes of The Property Market
Food for thought
When I first came to Singapore, people told me that the local guys are not romantic. The way they propose is asking you to jointly apply for an HDB flat.
Gradually, I realize that it depends very much on the context. Their strong feelings and passions are often not for humans, but for objects, especially properties. When it comes to home purchase and property investment, many Singapore guys are true romantics. So are some women.
They are ready to romanticize what will happen out of a preliminary plan. They can have fantasies from showflats in sales galleries and from artists’ impressions in sales brochures. They believe in the fairytale and fall in love with it.
I am the other way round. If I am using my hard-earned money to buy properties, I am a true pragmatist. I can’t fantasize about an empty site to be more exciting than it actually is. There is nothing sexy going through the facts and running the numbers.
I can only be romantic with humans. Sorry.
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“…….Seven months later in February 2021, The Straits Times suddenly came up with the headline “Queenstown skyline to sparkle with blue jewels….” …..should be Feb 2001
Thanks. Just updated. Need to change spectacles again 🙁
Do you think Queens condo still a good buy now in 2022?
Read the Queens Google reviews
If purely on an investment perspective, buying a resale would offer you a lower capital investment potential compared to a new launch.
Do take note of lease decay when you decide to sell or upgrade in the future.
My thinking is the other way round. I always prefer resale projects to new launches. All condos will have depreciation over time anyway. When new projects are priced by developers at a big premium above resale ones, you don’t know how long you need to wait until market prices in that area catch up. That’s why those who bought new launches in 2013 or high-end condos in 2007 are still under water. Besides, resale owners have identified and rectified most developer defects, fixed lightings, etc. for you. No need to do much before you can rent it out. It’s time efficient and better value for money in terms of investment. On the other hand, buying new projects only benefit the developers and property agents.
I stay at Pasir Panjang, part of the Greater Southern Waterfront.
Driving to Orchard don’t take 30 minutes as you mentioned. It takes less than 15 minutes.
Telok Blangah is also not as congested as you claimed, perhaps traffic is only a little more heavy during the peak morning and evening rush hour.
Most of the time, traffic is very light, especially during the weekend.
Has traffic improved now? That’s great. My workplace was near Vivo City. I’m still haunted by the memories of being stuck in traffic during rush hours. Under the pandemic has less tourists going to Sentosa should be better.
driving to CBD from Telok Blangah can skip Vivocity through West Coast Highway. Perhaps you can try to drive from Pasir Panjang or from Henderson Road to get the updated feels
I have lived in Pasir Panjang for 26 years.
Traffic is fine, even during peak hours.
Previously, there might be some traffic jam at the junction of Pasir Panjang and Telok Blangah Road. But not really that bad.
Nowadays, traffic has improved nevertheless.
Avenue South Residence by UOL is located at Silat Ave opposite SGH, while Kepple Club southern waterfront is near Labrador Park.
Quite far away and on different side of Mt Faber, your assumption may not make sense.
You are right. My bad. They are in different areas of Greater Southern Waterfront. I have highlighted the two deleted sentences in my original posting.