I used to see property investment as a means to achieve financial freedom. That was also the drive to build my first property portfolio in the 2000s.
Sixteen years later, my knowledge on the subject has increased more than tenfold. Now I finally understand that property investment is nothing more than a game.
Property: a popular Singapore game
Many Singaporeans are big fans of the property game. We can’t wait to play it.
But how well do we know the rules of the game?
Are we aware of the unwritten rules?
Do we know whether winning is determined by chance, skills, strategy or position in the game?
How many of us are sophisticated players who can see the full picture, visualize the possible scenarios, and anticipate the moves of other players?
Can we stay calm when surrounded by noises of speculators who constantly stir our emotions, make us restless, create doubts and cause confusions?
Developers are the new property flippers
Over the launch weekend, 315 of the 861 units at The Tapestry were snapped up by buyers.
The units are not cheap. They come with a shocking price of $1,310 psf which is 28 to 38 percent higher than average transacted prices of nearby projects, including The Tropica ($807 psf), Arc at Tampines ($856 psf) and Waterview ($946 psf).
The 21,717.7 square metre URA site at Tampines Avenue 10 was awarded last May to Bellevue Properties, a wholly-owned subsidiary of City Developments Limited (CDL), at a top bid of S$370.1 million.
With a plot ratio of 2.8, it translates to $565.42 psf. Assuming $350 psf for construction cost and $274.63 psf ($350+$565.42 x 30%) for other expenses, the total cost of the project works out to be $1,190 psf ($565.42 + $350 + $276.63).
With a launch price of $1,310 psf, CDL is making a profit margin of above 10 percent.
This is a far cry from the average profit margin of 35.7 percent in 2009, or 22 to 25 percent between 2010 and 2012.
Koh Wee Meng of Fragrance Group lamented that “the Singapore property market has not offered good value for developers” and “developers here are chasing after land (and) hoping for future price (appreciation)”.
No wonder some bigger players are missing in action when the rest (China developers, boutique developers, etc.) are riding on the en bloc bandwagon.
Barely 4 km away, Tampines Court was sold collectively to Sim Lian Group at $970 million last August. A premium of $359 million on top of the sale price was paid to the government to maximize the plot ratio to 2.8 and to top up the leftover of 69 years to 99 years.
The 702,164 sq ft site costs the developer $676 psf and has to be sold at a minimum price of $1,333.8 psf to make a reasonable profit.
Mind you, the “reasonable profit” is achievable based on the condition that Sim Lian can clear all units in five years after obtaining planning approval. Failing to do so means paying Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for all the unsold units. On top of that, any remaining units after two years’ of obtaining TOP are subjected to extension charges.
For the last 12 months, bidding and acquisition prices have gone higher and higher. Developers have to mark up and resell new projects at even higher prices.
But how high can prices go?
There is a long queue of projects waiting to be launched. Just in the east area, newly en bloc sites already have Eunosville, Amber Park and Eunos Mansion in the queue. And there is no lack of newly-TOP projects and new projects with unsold units in the same area.
It’s a matter of time before buyers realize the oversupply and shun from the sky high prices.
To win the game, developers are competing with time to “launch first” and “change hands fast”.
Whichever projects launch first can tap the pent-up demand from eager buyers. Whatever units can sell now can minimize ABSD to be paid after five years. Whoever developers can quickly flip the uncompleted units from Government Land Sales (GLS) or collective sales to the buyers can win the musical chair game.
And the overall big winner is …
Isn’t that too obvious?
Besides property taxes, government revenue from properties mainly comes from two main streams: land sales and stamp duty.
1. Land Sales
Last year, developers spent close to $16 billion on government land tenders ($7.65 billion) and collective sales or private land deals ($8.2 billion). Another $5.56 billion were spent on the same as of mid-March this year.
Besides GLS, developers are paying the government top-up premiums on maximizing tenure and plot ratio, as well as development charges (DC), Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD), ABSD and Qualifying Certificate extension charges. DC rates for non-landed residential use have just been raised 22.8 percent on 1st March, barely six months after the increase of 13.8 percent last September.
That’s why when owners of Mandarin Gardens set a price tag of $2.48 billion for a possible en bloc sale, , the developer acquiring the one million square feet site can potentially be paying a whopping $3 to 4 billion to the government.
2. Stamp Duty
In Singapore budget 2018, our Finance Minister mentioned an additional revenue of $2 billion from stamp duty collections in FY2017. IRAS collected an average of about $8 billion in recent years from property tax and stamp duty which is “a significant proportion of our revenues”.
To ensure that “those who can afford a higher-value residential property pay more taxes on their purchase”, the top marginal BSD rate was raised from 3 to 4 percent for residential properties with value above $1 million.
And don’t think that you can get away with it. In 2015, stamp duty on share transfer has jumped to $93 million. Between 2013 and 2016, IRAS recovered about $21 million in taxes and penalties from 437 stamp duty audits. Nine percent of the cases involved non-compliance of ABSD.
Investors and landlords are losers in every way
As investors, we all want the markets we invest in to be lucrative and the assets we own to be in demand.
The fastest way to devalue a currency is to keep printing money in that currency. Similarly, the quickest way to depreciate an asset is to oversupply it in the market.
What we investors and landlords are facing now are uncontrolled supply and increased competition of what we possess, while our pool of customers (tenants or buyers) are not growing.
To buy any investment property in this market, we are already facing Loan-to-Value and TDSR (Total Debt Servicing Ratio) restrictions. With 4 percent BSD, 7 to 15 percent ABSD, 4 to 12 percent Seller Stamp Duty (SSD), it is almost impossible to come up with any ROI number that makes sense without using a faulty calculator or setting a wrong formula in excel.
Property is an investment measured by yield (annual rental income over property value). With interest rate and cost of borrowing going up, either rental rate have to go up or property prices have to go down in order to enjoy the same yield. When can we expect to see it happen in this market?
Even if we are prepared to “subsidize” tenants to stay in our properties, or buy an overpriced home for our own stay, how can we rule out the possibility of our new neighbours going for collective sales? If we buy now, who can guarantee us not lose our home immediately after buying it? Not to mention being forced to pay SSD after paying all the BSD, ABSD and legal fee.
How fair is the property game?
It is sad but true that we property buyers are actually the ones footing the bills of every single payment in the property buying game – down payment, agent commission, stamp duties, property tax, housing mortgage, legal fee, home renovation, etc.
We use our hard-earned money to directly or indirectly support all the stakeholders in the Singapore residential property market – namely the developers, builders, property agents, mortgage banks, loan consultants, conveyancing lawyers, stock brokers, industry analysts, property portals and Inland Revenue. And yet we can only play a supporting role passively behind the scene.
We homebuyers are no different from acting enthusiasts.
When the market is good, we are dispensable walk-ons in movies, voluntarily taking up non-speaking roles that fill up the crowd scenes (except we are the ones who pay rather than being paid).
When the market is bad, stakeholders in the movie industry have made their money and gone. But we are left high and dry paying the debts of our depreciating homes.
A game is fun when everyone can take turns to play; when all the players have equal chances of winning; when it is a fair battle for all the opponents.
If this is not the case, is the game still fun to play? Or is it only fun to play for the obvious winner?
Well, it is a game afterall. Whether you choose to play or not, it is up to you.
Let me end this post with lyrics from ABBA’s “The Winner Takes It All”.
I was in your arms
Thinking I belonged there
I figured it made sense
Building me a fence
Building me a home
Thinking I’d be strong there
But I was a fool
Playing by the rulesThe gods may throw the dice
Their minds as cold as ice
And someone way down here
Loses someone dear
The winner takes it all
The loser has to fall
It’s simple and it’s plain
Why should I complain?
Did you watch my video “2018 Singapore Property Market – what developers, agents, banks and analysts are hiding from you”? Watch it now!
Al says
Thanks for sharing. Very true…. I intend to watch your video once I find time this weekend.
Property Soul says
Thanks. Enjoy the video!
Frederick says
Hi Vina,
Couldn’t agree more.
I’m liquidating one of my properties and will be staying off the market for sometime to let the dust settle. Wth the numbers of enblocs, the amount of displaced owners looking for homes, and the subsequent increase of apartments from these rebuilds, you do not need a rocket scientist to foretell the near future. It just takes some bad news to burst it real quick. It doesn’t help with aging, unproductive and declining population to exacerbate the situation.
Property Soul says
Frederick, we are on the same page here. I have investor friends who can see this too and they have sold whatever they can to avoid being trapped later. There is nothing much we can do about the oversupply and immigration policy.
Timothy Ow says
Wait you mention immigration policy but there is no need to have any kind of residency status to purchase non-landed private property in Singapore correct? Ie, if I am an investor in China with no links to Singapore, not working here, no EP or any pass of any kind, I can still buy private condominiums here for long term investment/rental yield, leaving aside the additional amount of Stamp Duty for foreigners which is not a hard restriction. In fact given that foreign buyers (ie non-citizens or non-PRs) make up about 40% of all non-landed private property buyers here, I suspect the developers are relying on these buyers to mop up excess supply- this dosen’t depend on locals or PRs buying up the oversupply. Singapore has surprisingly little restrictions and constraints on the ability of foreign buyers (without any connection to Singapore) to buy and sell such property (take for example Australia, which restricts sales by foreign buyers in the secondary market to only residents+PRs).
Property Soul says
Where do you get this “40% foreign buyers buying non-landed private properties” figure from? If this had happened, property agencies here would never have to merge.
For the whole year in 2017, only 6% of the total sales transaction volume (i.e. 1,600 out of a total of 25,010) is from foreign buyers. Mind you, our “foreign buyers” in Singapore also includes foreigners who have stayed in Singapore for some time but didn’t manage to get approval for their PR applications. And these “foreign buyers” are required to pay 15% ABSD because they are “foreigners”.
Check online for all the new project launch. The majority of buyers are Singaporeans, followed by PR. Foreigners are always the minorities. Quoting the words from the Head of Research of a property agency, the Singapore property market depends very much on “domestic demand” only.
There must be reasons why mainland Chinese buyers is the cause of rapid rise in property prices in Hong Kong, US, Canada, Australia, etc., but never in Singapore. Compared with other countries, the capital outflow from China to invest in properties in Singapore is negligible.
Timothy Ow says
Oh sorry, I think 40% is in reference to CCR properties only and “foreigners” under URA statistics do include PRs. See the below BT article:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/property-2017-sept-issue/luxury-condos-developers-banking-on-local-demand
“SINCE 2016, there has been a gradual improvement in the number of overseas nationals buying into non-landed private residential properties in the Core Central Region (CCR). This followed a drop that coincided with the termination of the Financial Investor Scheme (FIS) towards end-April 2012. The FIS was then an alternative but popular avenue to gain Singapore Permanent Residency (PR) status and had been a source of overseas demand for real estate here.
Nevertheless, the overall share of transactions in the CCR by foreigners for new and secondary sales has been falling. It is only in the new and sub-sale market that their share of transactions has been trending up since 2012. But compared to 2011 or even 2015, the data still suggests a lack of commitment by overseas nationals.
After these two years, the share of transactions by foreigners in the CCR started to decline. In 2011, the percentage of overseas buyers was 48 per cent for all sale transactions but it fell sharply to below 40 per cent for the year 2012 to 2014. There was a pick-up in the share of overseas buyers in 2015 for new sale and sub-sale transactions, to 46 per cent but it started to soften again to 44 per cent in 2016 and remained at that level in H1 2017 (Chart 1)”.
You are right-. the Singapore property market depends very much on “domestic demand” only. It is pretty scary how exuberant it has been in the last few Qs even without much foreign buying interest.
Property Soul says
Foreigners buy luxury apartments in CCR for different reasons. They may have a sum of money to “park” there. Or they are just buying another overseas “trophy”. But in terms of investment, they know that the yield is miserable.
Bruce says
“$350 psf for construction cost”
may i know how to derive $350 psf? is this project specific number due to plot ratio, size?
Property Soul says
$350 psf construction cost is industry average. Of course there is plus and minus depending on the type and quality of project.
peter says
My client told me now the construction cost is about 450 PSF due to inflation. Don’t know how true is that.
Property Soul says
Thanks. Then developers` profit margin will be even lower. Also difficult to squeeze the builders because of lots of news projects coming up competing for the same labor pool.
Joe says
I think the good old days of earning from property investment is long gone in Singapore.
With the latest round of cooling measures, the transactional costs for buying and holding on to a property become too high. The rental yield has also dropped significantly. The government seems determined to cool the property market and prevent prices from going up further.
Under such circumstances, investors like us can only switch to commercial properties or invest in overseas properties.
Property Soul says
The problem is the vacancy rate of commercial properties like offices, retail and factories is even higher. Unless you are talking about corporate purchase which is not the game of retail investors.
Overseas properties can forget about those advertised to Singaporeans because they are no better than Singapore residential properties.
Jade Scape says
Thanks for share important information with us. I hope you will share more information regarding the property in Singapore.