Government Land Sales for residential sites in Singapore just crossed the S$1 billion mark. A 99-year leasehold site in Queenstown Stirling Road was sold at a top bid of S$1.003 billion. (Read article in Bloomberg.)
The winning consortium is China’s Nanshan Group and Logan Property (a Chinese developer listed in Hong Kong). Nanshan has been eyeing at the Singapore property market for long. In the past 12 months, it participated in 8 of 11 tenders in Singapore’s land auctions.
What is the role of the government?
In Singapore, land use is regulated by Singapore Land Authority and Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). They make decisions on zoning, plot ratio and development charges which have direct impact on the value of the sites.
The Chief Valuer at IRAS sets a minimum reserve price on the land parcels based on recent property transactions. URA then sells them to developers through public tenders. The sites will be awarded to the highest bidders if they don’t fall below 85 percent of the reserve price.
Chesterton Singapore reported that land prices have increased by an average of 30 percent each year from 2011 to 2014. Land auction data from URA also show that suburban areas such as Tampines, Clementi and Jurong West have land prices almost doubled from 2008 to 2014.
The government can indirectly influence the selling price of new sites in at least 3 ways:
1) Increase or reduce the release of new sites for public auction;
2) Impose or relax cooling measures to restrict or stimulate the property market; and
3) Launch of public flats to meet the demand for public housing.
Where have developers’ profit margins gone?
Building up the land bank and replenishing the stocks of sites are important to a property developer. Successful acquisition of land parcels means the launch of new projects in the pipelines. Successful launch of new projects can do wonders to the company’s financial results.
The number of bidders in public auction has increased from an average of 8.25 in 2nd half of 2015 to 13.3 this year. In 2017, so far 2 out of 4 land tenders were awarded to foreign bidders.
Keen competition from cash-rich foreign counterparts are forcing local developers to bid aggressively. If they are conservative in bidding, they will be easily outbid by China developers who are eager to take a share of the Singapore property market.
A recent report by Cushman & Wakefield mentioned that developers are paying an average of 29 percent more for residential sites over comparable sites sold in the past 5 years. In the 2nd half of 2016, developers were paying only 13 percent on average in premiums.
Land prices have shot up. But property prices are falling. How badly are developers’ margins affected?
In 2009, developer margin stands at an average of 35.7 percent. It drops to 11.8 percent in 2014 and 4 percent for ECs.
Are developers committing suicide?
Back in August 2013, City Development Limited’s Kwek Leng Beng told the media that “if the Qualifying Certificate is there, it will be suicidal to keep tendering at high prices just because we want a land bank.”
According to the Qualifying Certificate regulation, new projects must be sold within 2 years after obtaining the Temporary Occupation Permit, or face extension charges on the unsold units. If developers can’t sell all units in their project after 5 years, they have to pay Additional Buyer Stamp Duty on the remaining units.
With a gross floor area of 954,327 sq ft, the Stirling Road site can be developed into a maximum of 1,110 units. The bidding price of S$1.003 billion translates into S$1,050.71 psf.
The average construction cost of a mass market condominium is $350 psf. Assuming the developer takes 30 percent of the total of land cost plus construction cost (i.e. 30% of $1,050 + $350 = $420 psf) to cover all necessary expenses and a minimum profit margin, the developer would have to sell at a lowest launch price of $1,820 psf ($1,050 + $350 + $420) in order to make a profit.
This is an aggressive jump from the nearby new project Queen’s Peak, which was released last November with a launch price of $1,580 psf.
One reason why the Queen’s Peak was selling well is largely the result of strategic pricing by developer MCC Land (HY Realty). It was also launched at the right time when homebuyers believed that prices have come down to a reasonable level for such a good location.
Will the Stirling Road site share the same luck? Who can guarantee the market condition by the time the project is ready to launch?
What is the potential price to pay?
The last price record for a residential site was created 20 years ago when Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Holdings paid $683 million or $456 psf for the 99-year Costa del Sol site on Bayshore Road in January 1997.
What happened to the developer after they paid the top price?
Not long after Cheung Kong won the land auction, Singapore was hit hardly by the Asian Financial Crisis. This was followed by the dot.com burst, SARS outbreak and economic recession in Singapore in the mid-2000s.
When Costa del Sol was launched in May 2000, the initial launch price was $765 psf. Remember the developer told the media and early buyers that selling prices would stay the same in subsequent launch phases even if property prices fall?
By February 2005, prices had been lowered to $650 psf for the re-launch of about 600 units.
After the project’s completion in 2003, for several years blocks of units in the project were still unsold and left vacant. It was not until August 2007 that Hotel Properties’ Ong Beng Seng and his family helped to clear an entire block of 180 remaining units that the 906-unit project finally concluded its 10-year episode.
In the Stirling Road record-breaking auction, MCL Land is the second highest bidder who lost to the Chinese developer at the price of S$925.7 million.
Is it a terrible loss or a blessing in disguise? Well, only time can tell.
Even if MCL wins the bid, it will have to sell at least $1650 psf based on its bid of $926m, attest to the demand.
The need to beef up land banks by developers is already there, only that it is more expedient now with these Chinese developers crowding into Spore after the split from 1MDB.
Unless external events such as Trump’s impeachment or the outbreak of war in Korean Peninsula or Middle East occur, we can expect property price to turnaround inspite of cooling measures and Qualifying Certs.
The market flux of two opposing directions in primary and secondary markets testify the beginning of change in movements.
The talk on market recovery coincides with the high-profile launch of new projects in recent months. But we are yet to see any significant positive changes in the numbers of the resale and rental market.
With aggressive marketing and market hype, there will surely be stories of “almost half of the units sold” with photos of an overcrowded sales gallery appearing in the media during the first two launch weekends. After a few months, the leftovers will quickly join the inventories of 18,870+ unsold units, until the developers think of a “creative” solution to clear the stock when the ABSD deadline is approaching.