Did you notice that when you flipped the newspapers in 2012 and 2013, all the articles on properties were about ‘the next hotspot, ‘property boom continues’, ‘robust sales in projects’ and ‘achieved record high’?
Did you notice that fast forward to 2014 an 2015, the same media published articles consistently on ‘lower transaction volumes’, ‘drop in property prices continues’, ‘rental market continues to soften’, ‘more bank sales” and “lowest in six years’?
Have you asked the question why there were few articles in 2012 and 2013 warning buyers to be conscious about the overheated market?
Have you asked the question why there was almost an absence of articles in 2014 and 2015 mentioning the pockets of opportunities in this bleak property market?
Have you ever wondered why the media can flip-flop on their opinion and outlook of the market within such a short time?
Have you ever wondered why a project or a district that used to be the media’s favorite can become a snub overnight?
A review of newspaper headlines on property over the past three years can give you a better idea on what is happening.
Iskandar properties: Once a cult, now a doubt
1. Headlines with positive outlook
2. Headlines with pessimistic view
Executive Condominium: Good buy or good-bye?
1. Headlines with positive outlook
2. Headlines with pessimistic view
Commercial Property: Is it hot or not?
1. Headlines with positive outlook
2. Headlines with pessimistic view
Shoebox units: When the hype fades
1. Headlines with positive outlook
2. Headlines with pessimistic view
Lessons learned
1. Read with a pinch of salt
When developers are launching new projects, they have to buy advertising time and space from the media to get the desired publicity and attention. Wide media coverage is the result of their efforts in advertising, public relations and editorial contribution.
Nonetheless, the media have no loyalty to anything or anyone they have reported previously. When the tide reverses, or when something gets out of favor, they can immediately shift gear to cover the story in a completely different angle.
2. Get first-hand information
The press is only capable of reporting what has happened or what is happening. But they are poor in predictions and are not in a position to tell what is going to happen next.
As property buyers and investors, it is important to step into the market to have a feel of what is happening. It helps tremendously if you are an active agent, buyer, seller, landlord or tenant in the marketplace.
Take the hints from your observations: Are foreign investors losing interest of your market? Do you see transaction volumes increasing or decreasing at a slower pace? Are owners taking longer or shorter to rent and sell their properties in the market?
3. Form your own judgment
The job of the journalists is to look for news or stories and report them. It is not their obligation to do a serious research, followed by an in-depth analysis and a detailed report on any subject.
Like what Jim Rogers said in A Gift To My Children: “The media often propagates conventional wisdom. Judge the content of stories in the media and turn their inaccuracies to your advantage.”
Savvy investors all have individual thinking. They know how to digest the news slowly and in moderation. They understand that there is no need to be too excited when the media say something is hot. Similarly, it is not necessary to be too pessimistic when the media say the worse has yet to come.
Individual judgment is about the wisdom of not believing everything you hear. Like what they say: If you are serious, you lose.
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